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Ladies and gentlemen, it is a pleasure to be here.

Before I begin, I want to assure you I know I am the only thing standing between you and other activities.

When it comes to sitting in a meeting or playing in the Arizona sun, I know which comes first!

I have been asked to speak about the future. Before we can look ahead, history teaches us that blueprints for the future are often found in lessons of the past.

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This chart illustrates the trends that have shaped our financial services past, present, and future. Copies will be available at the end of my speech. I will show you "snapshots" of it to illustrate my points.

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Today membership in the roundtable is composed of: banks, insurance companies, brokerage houses, and finance companies.

We meet in lovely Scottsdale.

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Let us go back to the seventies… when I first started in correspondent banking. Then the roundtable was known as the Reserve City Bankers. It met in New York City. The Reserve City Bankers were composed of the top 500 banks. Each had about $500mm or more in assets. Bank market share stood at 78%. The concepts of brand and financial services were relatively unimportant. The cost of capital was, thought to be, more or less, free.

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The focus in those days was on R.O.A. Our retail channel was solid: bricks and mortar. "Build it and they will come" mindset. In fact it was "build and gather a cheap source of funds"-- this way corporate bankers will have low cost funds to lend. Information was active - it consisted of cash and checks. Commercial paper was just starting to disintermediate the banks. The underpinning of market capitalization was "build and buy" a branch infrastructure. Into this world of banking, a leader I once worked with, Walt Wriston launched a hand grenade. Walt Wriston said: nationwide banking was here to stay and new competition will come from Merrill Lynch, AT&T, Sears Roebuck, and insurance companies. The banking world called him a "futurologist"… which was another way of saying he was crazy.

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After all, consumers did not seem to care about what Wriston was talking about. Consumers used one fixed telephone line. They shopped at "mom & pop" stores and major department stores. Consumers watched TV and the PC was still in doctor Wang-s and Steve Jobs' garage! Consumers saw the baby boom generation entering the workforce. And we all lived day-to-day at a slower pace - by today's standards!

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Ten years later we began to see a transition. There were nearly 20,000 banks. And predictions by Wriston came true: the financial services arena expanded to include Merrill Lynch, Sears, AT&T, and the insurance companies. Nationwide banking became real. In 1975 it was Banc America card. By 1985 Visa was here to stay.

Information moved into the electronic realm. Instead of "active information" such as cash and checks, we moved to passive information. This was the start of electronic data and the information age! Market capitalization was growing and to enter, you set up acquisitions and joint ventures. On the consumer side…People shopped in big boxes. Mega-stores like Wal-Mart tarted national expansion. Generation X was experiencing the economy. And most of what they experienced was negative: inflation, downsizing, and no growth.

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So now we come to the year 2000! The financial services roundtable includes diverse financial institutions. Market share of banks is 32%. The addition of financial services companies adds a kick to that figure. When it comes to brand, we may see a lost opportunity. While the dot.coms spend millions to increase awareness, the traditional companies already have it. Yet the market pays little heed!

When it comes to market valuation, there is a double standard. The market cap of Ya-hoo is greater than the combined market cap of Ford and GM. Although with the way NASDAQ has been swinging, that could change on Monday!

Today the market cap of Ford is $58 billion. The cost of capital rises…and so does the cost of customer acquisition. Banking moves from the national to the global stage.

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The focus today is to maximize shareholder value -- you know, SVA. Corporate finance now makes sophisticated use of debt placement. Ford Credit offered a $1 billion bond to consumers on the Internet -- and that was a small offering!

The cost effective way to enter the market is through "joint ventures." On-line banking is a reality. We are now in the period of "bricks & clicks." Many banks are working to bring the two sides together. How do you move a customer to cyber space, and how does a branch serve a dot.com customer?

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A governing principle of our life today seems to be 24/7…always there, always on. Consumers are connected: over multiple land lines, mobile phones, and computer networks. Consumers have adopted e-shopping. And also shop in hyper-markets. Consumer buying power gains influence. So, too, does the influence of technology. Echo boomers-- the kids of boomers-- are growing up… too fast! And no wonder, the pace of life is very fast… and getting faster! We enter the digital divide. The technology leap is bringing a lot to many. Yet "technology unemployment" has some people left behind. Will the decreasing cost of technology bridge this divide?

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Where do we go from here? If Walt Wriston, were here today, what would he say about the future? He did not teach me the answers. He taught me to ask questions… Let us discuss breakthrough questions, the nature of which lead to breakthroughs in our thinking. I want to ask questions about the future just as Wriston did in the 1970s. Will membership in our roundtable continue to evolve? Predictions call for us to be moving into the time of Mega-brands.

How are we investing in today to build our brand for tomorrow? Will you be a mega-brand, or a transparent service provider? Take Ford, for example. Our brand recognition share is 43%.

By contrast, our market capitalization is less than half that of Yahoo! Why? Yahoo! is focused on the consumer. Ford is seen by the market not to be as focused.

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My boss, Jac Nasser, and the entire management team at Ford is working hard to change that perception. Here, Ford serves as a good example of how the old economy is adapting to the demands of the new economy.

In the automotive business today, the vehicle complements the consumer lifestyle. It also serves as an Internet portal on wheels.

Beyond 2000 we will see my custom car.com. We will witness personalization and hybrid vehicles running on alternative fuels. Just last Thursday Ford announced a mixed battery-and-gas powered sports utility vehicle for 2003. The new escape will get forty miles to the gallon. 2025 will see the era of multiple personalities, multiple vehicles, multiple delivery channels.

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The financial services side of the automotive business has great potential. It is also a great example of the power of brand.

Ford Motor Company has some 25 million customers worldwide. These customers generate $60 billion of financial services earnings annually. Of this, Ford Credit captures about $2 billion annually. We plan to leverage the strength of the Ford brand, working with diverse financial partners - some may be in this room! Our goal is to increase our share of this $60 billion earnings pie.

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And, as for the industry? Over the next five to ten years… Consumers will use the Internet more and more. Expect e-commerce retailing to top $200 billion in 2005. Today everyone is asking… "How much will I get?" Not enough of us are asking… Why is it only $200 billion? And how can we capture more of these billions without spending huge amounts of capital?

As befitting the new "e-tail" mindset, consumers will expect products that are customized and personalized. So ask yourself: What do I offer today to fit the consumer mindset? How can I transform my bank into one that is customized to the personal financial needs of my customers?

Let me give you an example. My wife recently was driving her new Jaguar with the global positioning system. The directions GPS gave were working fine … with one exception. One day she calls me.

"Don, the GPS is telling me to turn left when I want to turn right."

"Where are you going?" I ask.

"To Neiman-Marcus!"

I replied: "Honey, the GPS is doing exactly what I told it to do!" My wife, of course, ignored the GPS - and me!

Now Jaguar customers soon will have a new Jaguar concierge service. My wife tested it. The human voice at the other end of the line told her it was fine to go shopping - and how to get there.

This concierge service is terrific for consumers. It may be even better for Ford. During every transaction with the concierge, we gain information about our customers' habits and lifestyles. This is information we can use to develop vehicles of the future, as well as continue to sell more products and services to our customers. It is a win-win proposition.

With the Internet, an even bigger story is business-to-business e-commerce. It may top $7 trillion by 2004. Bee-2-bee is not simply a buzzword. It is becoming the way to do business. Starting now there is an emphasis on bee-2-eye. How businesses can harness the potential of the intranet.

That is, when you use your intranet to maximize the productivity of your most valuable resource… your people!

What will be happening to the financial services industry? It will continue its trend of consolidation. Market share of banks could plunge to almost nothing… or they could rise to higher levels than ever. Look for larger e-companies to swallow smaller ones. Banks will also continue to get bigger and bigger.

By contrast, as I said a moment ago, consumers will want more personalization. So I ask -- where in your vast organization does the small reside? How local is your global company?

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Moving further out to 2025 the future gets even more exciting… also much harder to predict. In finance, we will embrace new partners: the brands Microsoft, Nordstrom, and Wal-Mart.

Grab your Coca-Cola card - we are going shopping!

All of them could be here at this meeting in 2025.

Consumers and businesses -- and the Roundtable -- will all be connected in cyber space. So much for a nice meeting in Arizona!

Unless it is your digital postcard.

Our economy will be shaped by new "Dellian" and "Gatesian" models.

How else will these companies transform business?

It is worth noting that one of the top 100 advances in manufacturing during the 20th century was the Dell model of buying inventory after taking the order. So… Is this the natural evolution of the e-economy? To what extremes will the dot.coms take us? Likely they will take us to a time of instant finance. It will be when consumers say: "My finances when I want them, where I want them."

So ask yourself: "Can you sync your branch network with your customers' palm pilots? Communications and finances are moving to personal communications devices. In New York today you can use your cell phone to call a number on a soda machine. Out comes a Coke. The charge shows up on your monthly telephone bill.

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We will move to a virtual currency. Our customers will carry digital wallets. Think of the smart card on steroids! We will all have just one telephone number for all forms of communication.

Here is a question: Are your legacy systems ready to cope? Do you have digital bits of your consumers spread across different divisions? Shopping will be on-demand… "When I want it!" Consumer spending will be the biggest driver in the economy.

Does your commitment to customer service bring you closer to the cyber customer?

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Technology will be our entry to the real world. And, we will live in a world where speed will be the defining factor of everything we do. Everything will be always on, always there, and ready for you!

How does this mesh with "banker's hours"? Take it further. Someday we will look back on this year as the good old days. "Things were slower then! Have you caught up yet?" It is today and we are already behind.

I hope you have found my "snapshot tour" of the past, present, and future instructive.

On Monday my speech will be available at my web site -- cyberwink.com

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And so in conclusion, I would like to thank the person who taught me to ask these types of "breakthrough" questions- Walt Wriston. Remember his words: "people invested in yesterday will fight to the last person. People trying to invest in the future will push the agenda of social change."

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The future belongs to the first movers… and preparation for the future never ceases. Thank you.